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NCAA Bracket: It’s time to end play-in games

Recently we took a look at Buffalo’s tournament prospects (which I’m placing as a 7-seed for now after their loss to Bowling Green). This week I wanted to revisit the other Western New York teams, because their outlook, while not great, isn’t quite as bleak as I portrayed it to be. Remember, all teams have a chance because any team can win their conference’s automatic bid by winning their conference tournament. So no matter what place they finish in, Niagara, Canisius and St. Bonaventure could get hot in their tournaments and win a bid (they just won’t get an at-large bid if they don’t).

Of the three, Niagara is probably in the worst position despite having the most total wins. They’re just 4-5 in the MAAC after defeating Canisius on Wednesday, good for 7th place in the conference. While there’s still a long way to go, that’s a lot of teams that are playing better than them. And their strength of schedule, according to ESPN.com, ranks 350th out of 353 D-I teams. Ouch.

St. Bonaventure is in eighth place in the Atlantic 10, but at least their conference record is at .500. They seem to be handling the lower teams in the conference but struggling with the top teams, like first-place Davidson, who they lost to on Friday. There’s some pretty tough teams ahead of them that will make it hard to win the Atlantic 10 tournament, but it could happen.

The team that might be in the best position right now is Canisius. Overall they’re below .500, but they are 5-3 and tied for second in the MAAC. If they can secure a top-2 seed in the conference tourney they’ll be in a good spot to get to the final, where anything can happen with a bid on the line. They also played a tougher non-conference schedule than most of their conference rivals, so they’re a bit more tested.

Depending on their record, the Bonnies might get a 14-seed if they were to win the A-10 tournament, maybe better if they play well down the stretch. Unfortunately for Canisius and Niagara, though, the MAAC’s best team (Rider) is only projected to be a 16-seed. This means that the Griffs and NU would likely be even lower in the pecking order, and land in one of the two 16-seed play-in games, meaning that they’d have to beat another 16-seed to earn the right to play a 1-seed in the first round of the tournament.

I have a major problem with this.

Any team getting a 16-seed knows they are unlikely to make it past a 1-seed. The field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, and 2018 was the first time that any 16-seed defeated a 1-seed (in 135 games!), a night UMBC will never forget and Virginia will never live down. Most of the time, just getting a game against these top teams before a national audience is the prize: the thrill and visibility of playing one of the best teams in the country with the whole country watching. Two of the play-in teams are denied this. Winning your conference tournament guarantees you a spot in the tournament, and technically, the “play-in games” in Dayton are part of the tournament, but not really, not in the ways that matter. You don’t even pick between the play-in games when you fill out your bracket! So the reward isn’t to face Michigan State on Friday, it’s to face… another 16, on Tuesday.

In 2007, Niagara had to beat Florida A&M in the play-in game before taking on Kansas. Those kids at A&M deserved their day in the spotlight against North Carolina or Florida, but instead they lost before the tournament even began. What should have been their spot was handed to a major conference “bubble” team.

So here’s hoping Canisius or Niagara manages to win the MAAC Tournament in March, but don’t be surprised if they have to play an extra game before facing Tennessee or Virginia.

Chris LaGrow is an OBSERVER contributing writer. Comments on this article can be sent to sports@observertoday.com. For more about the play-in game debate, read his blog post about it at the17thseed.blogspot.com.

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