I have always been keenly interested in winter weather ever since I spent part of the Blizzard of ’77 marooned near Union and Walden in Cheektowaga. So I decided to investigate what sort of winter we can expect this year in Western New York.  Will it be like last year’s mild and dry winter? Or will it be a return to another winter of record snows and bitter cold?  To do this I consulted several long-range forecasts.

However, to begin I found that I needed to understand several terms to better understand winter weather.  These are El Nino and La Nina. El Nino, which means “the boy” is the warm phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation or ENSO and thankfully all we really need to know about that is that it causes warmer and drier winters in western New York. La Nina which means “the girl” is the cool phase of the ENSO and results in generally cooler and wetter winters in Western New York.

According to some forecasters a strong El Nino, such as we had last year, will likely be followed by a strong La Nina. This led the Weather Service to issue a La Nina Watch this past spring. That was later canceled and now we may face either a weak La Nina or none at all.  So what does that portend for this winter? It seems to depend on who you listen to.

One weather prognosticator says that a weak La Nina means a colder winter than last year depending on how dominate the Polar Jet will be over the Sub Tropical Jet, whatever that means.  They even predict the possible return of the dreaded Polar Vortex which means we should not allow children outdoors to play this winter unless they are wearing clothing designed for wear at the South Pole along with an ample supply of survival rations.

Another meteorologist predicts that a weak La Nina will bring a continuance into 2017 of the record warmth we had this past summer and fall leading to a swifter onset of Global Warming.  Will we need to begin evacuating Boston, New York and other coastal cities sooner than expected?

I then consulted The Old Farmer’s Almanac and The Farmer’s Almanac which by the way are not the same. The Old Farmer’s Almanac is predicting a mild and snowy winter 2017 for Western New York which apparently means a lot of slush. The Farmer’s Almanac, which is not as old as the Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts a frigid and snowy winter for Western New York.

The National Weather Service is currently giving the Northeast and Midwest an equal chance of either above normal or below normal temperatures and precipitation for the upcoming winter months.  Bureaucrats will be bureaucrats.

Here is my prediction for the coming winter. Temperatures are going to get colder before they get warmer. By late November some days will be cold and other days warm.  We might have snow in November and heavy squalls at the end of the month or it might rain.

Plan your Christmas shopping accordingly. Prior to Christmas we could get drizzly rain or if it’s cold, squalls and Thruway closings. If we don’t get snow for Christmas, don’t blame me, blame Irving Berlin and Bing Crosby for making you dream of a white Christmas.

January will be the coldest month and an ice-free Lake Erie could bring squalls or perhaps none if the lake freezes. February will give us tantalizing hints of spring on some days and hints of another ice age on others. March weather as usual is anyone’s guess except that St. Patrick’s Day parades will kick off in either frigid conditions or warm spring sunshine. By April we might see spring weather interspersed with snow showers and baseballs with snowballs.

That’s my forecast.  If it’s wrong don’t blame me, blame the Wooly Bear Caterpillar I consulted in making it. Sadly, he died crossing the road to get to the other side.

Finally, the Thanksgiving Day forecast is calling for temperatures in the low 40s with the possibility of rain.  But no matter how the weather turns out, I hope that you and your families have a great day.

Thomas Kirkpatrick Sr. is a Silver Creek resident. Send comments to editorial@observertoday.com