Let’s check out the top of the bracket this week. Our four 1-seeds are Baylor, Gonzaga, Kansas and San Diego State. College hoops fans are very used to seeing Kansas and Gonzaga at this level. We’re not as used to seeing Baylor (currently leading the Big 12) and San Diego State (the last undefeated team and leading the Mountain West) at this level, though. Why are they at the top of the bracket?

The top overall seed for most would probably be Baylor. The Bears are No. 2 in the NCAA’s NET rankings, they lost only once (to Washington, on a neutral court, back in November), and they have three wins over teams in the NET’s top 15 (Kansas, Butler, and Arizona). They are top 7 or better in the ranking systems that the Selection Committee puts stock in (KenPom, Sagarin, and ESPN’s BPI and SOR).

One-loss Gonzaga is ranked higher than Baylor in ALL of those ranking systems except SOR (Strength of Record). They’ve beaten two NET top-20 teams in Oregon and Arizona, and their only loss was to Michigan (back when Michigan was playing well). The Bulldogs’ challenge the rest of the way is that they don’t have many chances for impressive wins. St. Mary’s and BYU are still on their schedule, but neither are slam-dunk tournament teams, and while the Zags are playing them and the weaker WCC teams, the 2-seeds behind them like Duke and Florida State are playing tougher competition on a more regular basis. Still, if they can win out (very possible) or finish with just one more loss, they can hold on to this spot.

Kansas was just involved in an ugly brawl at the end of their win over archrival Kansas State, and multiple players were suspended (one for 12 games). Don’t expect the Jayhawks to fall too far, though, if at all. Though they lost to Baylor, Duke, and Villanova, those are about as “good” as losses get. Their win over Dayton keeps getting better, as the Flyers keep winning and moving up the bracket (more on them below). With a soft spot coming up in their schedule over the next two weeks, they should be able to hang around right behind Baylor and stay on the top line. If you doubt that, consider that they rank first, second or third in all of the rankings we’ve mentioned. They’re not going anywhere.

Our last top seed is San Diego State. The Aztecs’ best finish was 2011 when they earned a 2-seed and went to the Sweet 16 before losing to eventual champion UConn, but other than that they’ve never been higher than a 4-seed. Their status as a 1-seed mostly hinges on their undefeated status, but they do have some solid wins to their name. Iowa, Creighton, and BYU were all NET top-30 wins against likely tournament teams. Among the 1-seeds, SDSU ranks the lowest in the ranking metrics, except in NET and Strength of Record, both of which have them No. 1 overall.

Who’s waiting in the wings, should any of these teams falter? Duke (of course) is probably the next team up, along with their ACC rival Florida State. The Seminoles’ worst loss was to Pittsburgh, but Duke has that head-scratching home loss to Stephen F. Austin. Duke’s numbers in the rankings are all much better than FSU’s (and San Diego State’s) so, as usual, they are the team to watch. But don’t sleep on Dayton. They’re fifth in NET and BPI and while they don’t have many resume-building games left (VCU is the only NET top-50 team left on their schedule), they’ll be favored in nearly every game and could easily finish with just 3-4 losses (if that).

So much can happen over the next six weeks, but these teams have positioned themselves very well. Some of the usual blue-bloods are still there and dangerous as always, but don’t let unfamiliarity make you think that San Diego State, Dayton, and Baylor are anything less than Final Four threats.