A proposed bill in New York could reshape how prediction markets operate within the state. Assemblyman Clyde Vanel introduced the Oversight and Regulation of Activity for Contracts Linked to Events (ORACLE) Act, formally known as A.B. 9251, aiming to clarify the legal status of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. These platforms allow users to trade contracts based on future events, including elections, sports outcomes, and economic developments.

Currently, such platforms exist in a legal gray area. While sports betting is regulated, prediction markets remain largely unmonitored. The ORACLE Act aims to amend New York’s general business law to bring event-based contracts under a regulatory framework much like the one that is used for gambling operations. If it’s enacted, the legislation would impede markets tied to politics, deaths, securities, and even natural disasters. It could also limit allowances for broader tournament-style wagers.

Regulatory Approach Mirrors Sports Betting Standards

The bill is proposing measures to ensure consumer protection. This includes mandatory self-exclusion options, deposit limits, and even a ban on credit-based funding. It would also restrict promotional language such as “risk-free bets” and require platforms to avoid over-the-top marketing tactics like push notifications that have been traditionally used before. Violations would be taken seriously and could result in fines up to $50,000 per incident or $1 million per day for ongoing breaches.

Related Developments in Gambling Oversight

The ORACLE Act complements broader efforts within the state to tighten regulation over online betting. While online sportsbooks are already active in New York, other forms of digital wagering remain restricted. Recent discussions in Albany have revived the possibility of expanding into internet casino gaming (iGaming), though progress remains slow.

Platforms that operate outside of traditional licensing models are attracting greater attention from everyday players. Sites that are vetted by ValueWalk experts, including no-account casinos, often distinguish themselves by offering modern infrastructure, easy access, and generous bonuses like welcome rewards, free spins, and cashback offers. This level of functionality is unsurprisingly appealing to a growing segment of users who are looking for efficiency without sacrificing user safeguards.

Online platforms often see spikes in activity during the NCAA tournament as fans look to engage beyond traditional brackets. This includes brackets like March Madness, which in previous years have become a popular entry point for prediction markets among casual users. These types of seasonal markets, while broad in scope, still raise compliance questions under the proposed law. The ORACLE Act would allow such formats only under specific conditions. This makes it essential for operators to adapt offerings in real time.

Enforcement That is Already Underway

Even before the bill’s formal passage, enforcement activity was escalating. On October 24, the New York State Gaming Commission directed Kalshi (a U.S.-based prediction market platform that allows users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events). to quit facilitating trades on sports and election outcomes. The platform had enabled trading on high-profile contracts such as the New York City mayoral race, and reportedly attracted over $63 million in volume.

Market Impact and Industry Pushback

The legislative move comes at a time when prediction markets are gaining visibility and investment. Google recently announced it would incorporate data from Kalshi and Polymarket into its finance platform. With Google’s stamp of approval, these products are pushed more into mainstream attention. Supporters of this move argue that event-based trading offers useful insights into public expectations and can serve as a financial hedging tool as well.

However, on the other side, critics raise concerns about the societal risks of allowing this. Susan Lerner, executive director of Common Cause New York, warns that monetizing political outcomes could undermine public trust in the democratic institutions set in place. The line between speculative investing and betting is thin, and the proposed restrictions are a reflection of a cautious stance by New York lawmakers to ensure it doesn’t get thinner or blur.

What’s Next for Prediction Markets in New York

If the ORACLE Act becomes law, New York would be one of the first states to write clear rules for prediction markets. Enforcement so far has been firm, but the stated aim is not to snuff out new ideas. The point is to hold platforms to account.

Vanel is pushing that line, and the case will not rest with a single voice. State Senator Joseph Addabbo Jr. has backed broader gambling rules in the past, and his support could shift the balance. He is not listed as a co-sponsor yet. When the legislature returns in January, the bill’s fate will come down to whether both chambers find common ground. Alignment across committees and votes will decide whether A.B. 9251 moves from proposal to policy.

Conclusion

This is a major moment for event-based trading platforms in New York. By drawing a clearer line between financial instruments and gambling, the state aims to close the gaps that let these markets expand fast and often without enough oversight. Legal claims and commercial interests will shape what comes next. The next few months will matter in how prediction markets fit inside a stricter gambling framework.