Tom Waters, a seventh-generation farmer, stands next to his planting machinery Friday, March 13, 2026, in Orrick, Mo. (AP Photo/Nick Ingram)

As the conflict in Iran continues, locally, farmers are or will soon be feeling the effects, specifically when it comes to the price of fertilizer.

Katelyn Miller, Cornell Cooperative Extension field crops specialist, said effects from the Iran conflict will be felt in a number of ways by American farmers, especially because of the connection to the global nutrient trade.

“We’re certainly going to be impacted by this in a multitude of ways,” Miller said. “Based on my research, the Straight of Hormuz handles about a third of the global nutrient trade, and prices have already jumped for fertilizer, especially urea. Supplies will be significantly impacted because some of the largest ammonia exporters utilize this water body to ship.”

Additionally, Miller said Iran holds some of the world’s largest natural gas reserves, a large component of ammonia production. Oil prices are also increasing, and gas and diesel responses have reacted in kind.

“I’ve heard people talk about jumps in prices by a dollar in some places at the pumps, more so for diesel,” Miller said. “That input is going up and will put a strain on farms for fuel as they correlate to planting, and general operating expenses. Farms are in a pinch as inputs are already high.”

Miller gave examples of the price of corn currently sitting at approximately $4.50 for cash values, and about 10 cents higher for future pricing nationally, along with the price of milk currently being quite low.

“There is going to be a huge pinch for our farmers on all fronts quite frankly, nationwide and locally,” Miller said.

According to an article from the American Farm Bureau Federation, Middle East conflicts bring specific concerns, especially around this time of year as farmers begin preparing for the spring planting season. Conflicts such as in Iran that disrupt fertilizer supply or raise fuel prices could increase production costs for farmers in the United States.

“Fertilizer and fuel prices are largely determined in global markets, meaning U.S. farmers can experience higher input costs even when the Middle East is not the primary direct supplier of specific fertilizer products to the United States,” the article says.

Additionally, Miller said the article reports that urea is over $500 a ton already.

“I had also found a report saying that there is already a price increase from barges coming into New Orleans,” Miller said. “I find it interesting that there are some comments about possible nationwide shifts in corn production, more so over to soybeans as they are less exposed to volatile fertilizer prices. For a lot of our farmers though, this isn’t an option when you’ve got cows to feed. … And this doesn’t even jump into confounding trade issues with tariffs.”

Overall, Miller said, locally, issues will be seen as the conflict continues, because the water bodies that support the movement of fertilizer are impacted, along with actual sourcing of important fertilizers like urea and the increase in fuel prices.

EXPERTS SAY DON’T EXPECT A QUICK FIX

Even before the current spike in prices, other factors in recent years have led to high fertilizer costs, starting with the war between Ukraine and Russia, which blocked access to raw materials and increased natural gas prices. China also cut phosphate exports as it focused more on domestic needs.

The latest factors worsened those existing supply issues, which means that even if the Iran war was resolved, fertilizer prices likely won’t quickly fall, said Jacqui Fatka, a farm supply economist for creditor CoBank.

“There’s going to be a tail to this that’s going to take time to get everything turned back on, sent back out,” Fatka said.

And then there is the time it takes for shipments from the Middle East to reach the U.S. — typically 30 to 45 days to reach the Port of New Orleans.

Some fertilizer is already stored in the U.S. and can meet demand amid the shortage of Middle East imports, but at some point those supplies will run low.

“We don’t quite know how it’s going to shake out,” said Nancy Martinez, director of public policy, trade and biotechnology for the National Corn Growers Association.

Nitrogen- and phosphate-based fertilizers are largely produced domestically, which helps a little bit, said Anne Villamil, a professor of economics at the University of Iowa.

“But again, energy prices are an input, and so even if you’re producing it in the U.S., if the cost of your inputs goes up, then it’s going to be an increase in price to the farmers who want to buy it,” Villamil said.

Soaring oil prices could result in higher food prices, given the increased cost of diesel needed to transport products to grocery stores and petroleum products used in plastic packaging, said Chad Hart, an economics professor at Iowa State University.

However, the increased fertilizer prices shouldn’t significantly lead to grocery store increases even as they put a crimp in farmers’ profits. That’s because on-farm costs are only a small part of what consumers pay at the supermarket.

EFFORTS TO CURB THE HIT ON FARMERS FROM COSTLY FERTILIZER

The Trump administration said it has taken steps to ease the cost of fertilizer, including moving to increase fertilizer imports from Venezuela, which U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins called “a huge step that puts farm security and farmers first.”

The Department of Agriculture also notes it previously announced $12 billion in one-time payments to help farmers offset losses primarily due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. In a statement, the USDA also said it has provided more than $30 billion in additional aid to farmers since January 2025, and the agency noted its support for a more competitive fertilizer marketplace that would ultimately lower prices.

Fatka, of CoBank, said the $12 billion doesn’t go far for farmers with a payment of $44 per corn acre when the USDA estimates about $900 per acre for cost of production for the average U.S. farmer.

Still, farm bankruptcies remain rare, with only 315 last year — a tiny percentage of the nearly 1.9 million farms nationally. And prices for the nation’s two largest crops — corn and soybeans — have been climbing recently.

Tom Waters, who farms about 5,000 acres (2,023 hectares) of corn, soybeans and wheat east of Kansas City, said the increase of fertilizer prices along with other costs makes it tough to make a profit when crop prices are so low.

“The margins get smaller and smaller so we just have to really work hard to trim our costs and be as frugal as we can be but still provide the soil and crop what it needs to grow and produce,” Waters said.

The Associated Press contributed to this report