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New York's race for governor appears to be tightening up.
Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul leads Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman 49-39%, according to a new Siena Poll of likely New York State gubernatorial voters released today (Siena's first poll of likely voters this cycle). In June, among registered voters, Hochul led Blakeman 52-32%. In other statewide races, Attorney General Letitia James (D) leads her challenger, Saritha Komatireddy (R), 54-36%, and State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli (D) leads Joseph Hernandez (R) 55-32%.
Likely voters say Hochul will do a better job than Blakeman increasing the supply of affordable housing, 51-35%. They say she will do a better job making prices more affordable for average New Yorkers, 48-41% and developing New York's energy future, 47-42%. They are closely divided on keeping New Yorkers safe, Hochul 47-44%, and addressing undocumented immigrants living in New York, 45-44% Hochul.
Asked whether four character traits do or do not describe Blakeman and Hochul, likely voters say Blakeman is 'tough' by 25 points and Hochul by two points. They say Blakeman is 'honest' by five points and Hochul is not by two points, and Blakeman 'gets things done' by eight points and Hochul by five points. On being 'in touch with average New Yorkers,' Blakeman is underwater by four points and Hochul is underwater by 12 points.
"With less than three months till Election Day, Hochul holds a 10-point lead over Blakeman, 49-39%, not crossing the magic 50% mark. In June, among registered voters, Hochul's lead was twice as large, 52-32%," Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said. "At this point four years ago, August 2022, when Hochul was just finishing her first year as governor, she led her opponent, former Republican Congressman (and current EPA Administrator) Lee Zeldin by 14 points, 53-39%, before going on to ultimately win the election by six points, 53-47%."
Hochul has a 46-49% favorability rating and a 48-49% job approval rating, while Blakeman has a 33-26% favorability rating, with 40% not knowing enough to have an opinion. By comparison, in August 2022, Hochul had a 46-41% favorability rating among likely voters.
"Not surprisingly, both candidates are holding on to their partisan bases, as Hochul leads among Democrats
80-8% and Blakeman leads among Republicans 84-9%. Likely independent voters favor Blakeman by a narrow five-point margin, 45-40%," Greenberg said. "Hochul holds a commanding 64-19% lead in New York City, but trails Blakeman in the downstate suburbs by eight points, 49-41%. They are running virtually even in upstate, as well as among men and with white voters; Hochul has large leads with women, Latinos and Black voters.
"While Hochul has a 10-point lead, likely voters think she'll do a better job than Blakeman on increasing affordable housing by 16 points. That's the good news for Hochul. The bad news is that voters think she's better than Blakeman on four other issues - affordability, energy, safety, and immigrants - by between only one and seven points," Greenberg said. "Holding to form, Democrats overwhelmingly think Hochul will be better on all issues than Blakeman, and Republicans overwhelmingly think Blakeman will be better. Independents favor Hochul by nine points on housing, but favor Blakeman by between eight and 15 points on the other four issues.
"Yet again we see Democrats giving Hochul high marks and Blakeman low marks on all four character traits, and Republicans doing the opposite, giving Blakeman high marks and Hochul low marks," Greenberg said. "While independents give Hochul negative ratings on all four traits, they overwhelmingly say Blakeman is tough and also say he gets things done. Independents are divided on whether Blakeman is honest or in touch; they score him better on both than they do Hochul."