Trending
Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) leads Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R) in the race for governor 50-41%, little changed from 49-39% in August, according to a new Siena Poll of likely New York State voters released this week.
In other statewide races, Democratic Attorney General Letitia James leads her Republican challenger, Saritha Komatireddy, 52-39%, down a little from 54-36% last month, and Comptroller Tom DiNapoli (D) leads Joseph Hernandez (R) 56-33%, virtually the same as August's 55-32%.
While only half of likely voters say they are supporting Hochul, two-thirds of likely voters think Hochul will win, including 37% of Republicans. As for endorsements, voters say, 51-30% that President Donald Trump's endorsement of Blakeman will be a negative for his campaign and, by a 50-30% margin, they say Mayor Zohran Mamdani's endorsement of Hochul will be a positive for her campaign. New Yorkers oppose Trump's renaming of Lake Ontario as Lake America 74-19%, and they oppose new large data centers in their area of the state after the state's one-year moratorium on new large data centers expires, 63-25%.
"With six weeks until election day, voters offer good news to both Hochul and Blakeman. She now has the support of 50% of voters and saw her favorability and job approval ratings edge into positive territory. He now trails by single digits - well, nine points - in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than two-to-one," Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said. "At this time four years ago, Hochul led Lee Zeldin 17 points,54-37%, before going on to win by six points.
"Currently, Blakeman is doing a better job with Republicans, leading 88-8%, than Hochul is with Democrats, leading 81-11%. Additionally, Blakeman is holding onto a narrow lead among independents, 44-39%, nearly the same as last month, 45-40%," Greenberg said. "Hochul has a dominant lead in New York City, 61-27%, and the two are running neck and neck in the downstate suburbs - Hochul 48-46% - and upstate, Blakeman 47-44%."
Hochul's favorability rating is 48-46%, up a little from 46-49% in August. Her job approval rating ticked up to 48-47%, from 48-49% last month. Blakeman has a 35-34% favorability rating, compared to 33-26% in August.
"Given a nine-point race, it might seem surprising that two-thirds of voters think Hochul will win. On the other hand, voters haven't elected a Republican governor in 24 years, and there is that two-to-one Democratic enrollment edge, so it may not be surprising that more than one-third of Republicans think Hochul will win, as do 61% of independents, although only 39% of independents currently plan to vote for her," Greenberg said.
"About half of likely voters think Trump endorsing Blakeman is a negative for Blakeman's campaign, including 69% of Democrats, 49% of independents and 24% of Republicans," Greenberg said. "On the other side, half of voters think Mamdani's endorsement of Hochul will be a positive for her campaign, including 72% of Democrats, 40% of independents, a plurality, and 22% of Republicans.
The poll also found a wave of opposition for Trump's renaming of a Great Lake. "Overall, nearly three-quarters of voters, 74%, oppose Trump's renaming of Lake Ontario as Lake America. While 93% of Democrats and 76% of independents oppose the renaming of Lake Ontario, a plurality of Republicans supports the Lake America renaming, 48-41%. It is strongly opposed upstate, 75-20%, and downstate, 76-18% in New York City and 70-20% in the downstate suburbs" Greenberg said.