Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump 53-39% among likely New York state voters, the first time the Siena College poll has included Harris in a horse race against Trump.

In late June, Trump trailed President Joe Biden by a narrower 47-39%. In a six-way election race, Harris leads Trump 49-37%, with 7% for Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and 4% for the other three minor party candidates, according to a Siena College poll of New York State likely voters released this week.

“The change at the top of the Democratic ticket has had a noticeable, while not dramatic, effect on the horse race. Harris has the support of 86% of Democrats, up from the 75% support Biden had in June. And while independent voters support Trump over Harris 47-40%, they supported Trump over Biden 45-28%,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said. “Harris leads with Black voters 81-11%, up from Biden’s 59-29% lead in June.

Harris has a 53-43% favorability rating, up from 42-47% in October 2023. Trump’s favorability rating is 39-59%, little changed from 37-59% in June, among registered voters. By a 74-23% margin, voters say this is the most important election of their lifetime. Democratic U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand leads Republican challenger Mike Sapraicone 56-33%. Voters strongly support the proposed constitutional amendment on November’s ballot, called the Equal Rights Amendment, 68-23%.

“Among all the presidential candidates that are likely to be on New York’s ballot, Harris is the only one with a positive favorability rating,” Greenberg said. “And looking at the race if it is a six-way election, Harris’ lead falls slightly from 14 points to 12 points. At the moment, 11% of voters – and 19% of independents – say they will vote for a minor party candidate.

Gillibrand appears in control to win her fourth election to the U.S. Senate, the poll found. “Not surprisingly, Sapraicone, who is making his first run for public office, is virtually unknown to New York voters. His favorability rating is 5-10%, with 85% having no opinion or having never heard of him,” Greenberg said. “What is a little surprising is that Gillibrand, who has been Senator since 2009, remains unknown to more than one-quarter of voters, but does have a 40-33% favorability rating.”

New Yorkers also will decide on an ERA amendment that has created controversy in upstate. A court case took the item off the ballot before an appeal placed it back on again. It appears to have overwhelming support in the poll.

“Democrats support New York’s so-called ERA amendment – which adds anti-discrimination provisions to the State Constitution and protects abortion rights – by an overwhelming 89-7%. Independents support it 64-23%. Republicans oppose the amendment, 55-32%,” Greenberg said. “While men support the amendment 56-31%, it is supported by women 79-15%. It is strongly supported in every region, and with white, Black and Latino voters.”