Legislation to hasten New York’s transition away from natural gas isn’t likely to become law this year — but that doesn’t mean the proposal won’t be back in 2024.

S.2016 passed the state Senate earlier this week by a 39-21 vote even as the New York Independent System Operator continues warning the state’s electric grid’s reliability margins are decreasing. Companion legislation (A.4592) wasn’t passed before the end of the regular state legislative session on June 10, though it could still be considered during the three-day special Assembly session this week.

If the legislation isn’t passed by the Assembly, it will start the legislative process again if Senate Democrats choose to reintroduce it in 2024. That appears likely given its support by Sen. Liz Krueger, D-New York City and chairwoman of the Senate Finance Committee.

While Democrats say the bill is necessary, Republicans feared the bill phases out natural gas too soon. Earlier this week, the New York Independent System Operator issued its Power Trends 2023 report which reiterates the ISO’s analysis that electrification programs are driving demand for electricity higher. Generators are retiring at a faster pace than new renewable supply is entering service. The potential for delays in construction of new supply and transmission, higher than forecasted demand, and extreme weather could threaten reliability and resilience to the grid. The ISO report also repeats the ISO’s previously issued warnings that achieving the mandates of the state’s 2019 Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act will mean new emission-free supply is needed to replace the capabilities of today’s generation, though such new supply is not yet available on a commercial scale.

“I see that on one hand we’ll save money converting from gas to electric and I believe the number that Senator Krueger gave was $150 billion to not have to upgrade that infrastructure,” Sen. George Borrello, R-Sunset Bay, said on the Senate floor. “But it reminds me we do not have infrastructure in place to electrify New York state and that cost is probably going to exceed $1 trillion, based on the simple math that was somehow missed by the Climate Action Council in their estimate. So we’ll spend a $1 trillion to save $150 billion. I don’t think that’s a good good idea but more importantly this will start the dismantling of the natural gas infrastructure. Western New York, where I’m from that’s the number one way to heat your home. We have abundant natural gas that is cleaner and lower in emissions. We do not have the ability to do this. And it is going to start pushing up starting in 2025. If you look at the calendar, it is 2023.”

The New York Home Energy Affordable Transition Act removes a residential customer’s legal right to utility gas and steam while maintaining a legal right to electric service while directing the state Public Service Commission to take any action necessary to transition away from fossil fuels and move toward electric heating and cooling. The bill acknowledges gas service may be limited or discontinued to meet the 2019 Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act and removes the 100-foot rule subsidy, which provides ratepayer-funded utility incentives to expand utility system infrastructure.

During the debate, however, Sen. Liz Krueger, D-New York City and Senate Finance Committee chairwoman, said the language change shouldn’t be concerning because the Public Service Commission would be able to approve gas hookups, they would simply no longer be required to.

“It doesn’t force the PSC,” she said. “Anyone can still go to the PSC and ask for approval to put in those gas lines to those specific facilities or even repair older ones. So, it is not forcing them, it is just the opposite, no longer forcing them to build into any plan that there will be gas lines. The PSC also has to review feasibility, necessity, and some other things before they would approve the continued new gas line.”

The law itself appears to do a bit more than Krueger says. The Public Service Commission is required to initiate one or more proceedings to better align its regulation of utility services with the timely achievement of the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act’s climate justice and emission reduction mandates. Those proceedings will include a policy review of the state Public Service Law and Public Service Commission rules and policy guidance to identify barriers to the timely, equitable achievement of the CLCPA climate justice and emission reduction mandates. That work will be presented to the state Legislature.

S.2016 also amends the commission’s rules and regulations governing allowances for the extension of gas and electric service, including eliminating line extension allowances for new gas service while allowing the Public Service Commission to increase line extension allowances for new electric service, including additional allowances to buildings that are made ready for beneficial electric loads such as those with electric vehicle charging facilities or grid interactive buildings. The commission may also establish allowances for buildings seeking interconnection with thermal energy networks.

Gas companies will also be required to restructure plans for addressing leak-prone gas mains and service lines, including being required to pursue a geographically targeted approach to implementing alternative solutions that minimize the replacement of gas mains and service lines while encouraging neighborhood-scale full building electrification, including through the installation of thermal energy networks, resulting in the decommissioning of the maximum feasible segment of gas main or service line. S.2061 would also require the Public Service Commission to establish notice requirements and consumer and affordability protections for customers served by segments of the gas distribution system targeted for decommissioning.

The Public Service Commission would also be required to issue an order to require electric corporations to pursue electric energy efficiency and demand flexibility measures that are cost-effective, reliable, and feasible with new energy efficiency targets and demand flexibility targets updated every three years. The Public Service Commission would also be required to determine the greenhouse gas emission reductions necessary to bring the statewide gas distribution system into alignment with the statewide 2030 and 2050 greenhouse gas emission reduction targets, and set interim emissions reduction targets for each gas utility as well as developing a periodic process to review and update such targets.

“So, you’re trying to say, I think, that there’s nothing to see here, we’re not changing anything but really we are,” Borrello said during his debate with Krueger. “You know, what we’re hearing from National Fuel and others is this is going to essentially make it difficult if not impossible for new constructions to have natural gas even when it is needed.”

For Krueger, S.2016 isn’t contradictory. Instead, it begisn a strategic downsizing of the gas distribution system.

“It is not actually speeding it up because as we just answered you, it is a one-year planning time line before implementation, so it is consistent with the existing laws that we have already passed,” Krueger said. “It does give the PSC the ability to evaluate individual cases that may be brought to them by individual customers either for private homes, or for businesses. That is all within the scope of the role of the PSC now. Now, if you’re asking me, perhaps that your confusion is, this is an effort to move us forward away from gas, yes, it is.”