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The state Independent System Operator and some federal officials, too, are warning of declining electric grid reliability in New York state and other parts of the northeast.
Earlier this month, the state Independent System Operator issued its 2023 Power Trends report detailing the most important issues impacting reliability of the electric system during the grid in transition. The annual report is a snapshot of the electric grid's capabilities -- and the capabilities are shrinking as electrification policies drive higher demand.
As demand increases, existing electric generating facilities are retiring faster than new renewable energy supplies are enterin service. ISO officials are concerned potential delays in electric supply and transmission facilities, higher than forecast demand and extreme weather could drive reliability margins lower than current projections. The Power Trends report reiterates the ISO's warning that meeting the state Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act requires new emission-free supply that can be used reliably to replace existing electric generation, but such new supply sources are not available on a commercial scale.
The electric grid's reliability issues are more pronounced in the New York City region. The reliability margins in New York City are projected to narrow to 50 megawatts by 2025 as coal- and natural gas-fired "peaker" plants begin retirement. Roughly 950 megawatts of generating capacity from peaker plants have already gone offline, according to the Power Trend report.
"The NYISO's first quarter 2023 STAR report shows that the growth in demand due to electrification coupled with the retirement of fossil fuel based peaker plants is leading to declining reliability margins statewide and most acutely in New York City," the Power Trends report states. "This STAR report notes that the confluence of these events presents significant challenges and risks to the reliability of the electric system in New York beginning in 2025. It concludes that, because of these conditions, the NYISO will likely need to designate peaker plants affected by the DEC's Peaker Rule to remain in service beyond 2025, until other permanent solutions are completed to maintain a reliable grid."
ISO officials said heat waves could bring grid reliability risks through 2025, when the Champlain Hudson Power Express project delivering 1,250 megawatts from a Canadian hydropower plant to New York City is finished. If that project is delayed, however, reliability concerns arise and ISO officials warn gas shortages and extreme winter weather could trigger reliability issues as early as 2028. Those reliability issues could last for years, the ISO warns. By 2031-32, the expected New York City reliability margin is expected to be roughly 100 megawatts under CLCPA-driven conditions.
The ISO's 20-year outlook planning document released in 2022 concludes that by 2040 New York's grid would need between 111 and 124 gigawatts of generating capacity -- or roughly three times the current capacity connected to the system -- and extensive investment in transmission facilities.
The ISO's markets, operations, and planning responsibilities are regulated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, three of whose four members have begun sounding the alarm about the reliability of the electric grid. During May 4 written testimony to the U.S. Senate, James P. Danly, one of the FERC commissioners, testified that subsidies for solar and wind energy and policy makers push to eliminate fossil-fuel generators is pushing electric grids in many states to the brink of failure. Mark Christie, a fellow FERC commissioner, testified that actions like New York's that retire consistent generating capacity in favor of intermittent generating systems like wind and solar are one cause of a pending reliability crisis.
"The United States is heading for a reliability crisis," Christie wrote in written testimony to members of the U.S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. "I do not use the term 'crisis' for melodrama, but because it is an accurate description of what we are facing. I think anyone would regard an increasing threat of system-wide, extensive power outages as a crisis. In summary, the core problem is this: dispatchable generating resourcesare retiring far too quickly and in quantities that threaten our ability to keep the lights on. The problem generally is not the addition of intermittent resources, primarily wind and solar, but the far too rapid subtraction of dispatchable resources, especially coal and gas."
Retirement of dependable generating capacity is one problem raised by the FERC commissioners. Another is the rate of subsidies for renewable energy which Danly said undermine the economics of more reliable but higher polluting coal and gas facilities. The difficulty in building natural gas pipelines is also an issue raised by Danly. Christie told senators PJM, a major electricity provider in the Washington, D.C., area, nearly had to resort to rolling blackouts during Winter Storm Elliott because a large number of gas-fired power plants failed to run in part because they couldn't get fuel. Natural gas pipelines have been a contentious matter in New York state in recent years as well.
"The consequences of premature retirements and resource scarcity are even more acute when you consider the constraints on natural gas supply resulting from the underdevelopment of interstate natural gas infrastructure -- again, driven by the FERC's maladministration of the Natural Gas Act," Danly testified. "Although I am genuinely delighted that the Commission has recently increased the pace of natural gas pipeline reviews, the policies FERC recently sought to promulgate have had the very effects I predicted at last year's hearing: according to the Energy Information Administration, 2022 saw the lowest quantity of additional capacity added to the natural gas pipeline system since 1995, the obvious result of the FERC's slow walking natural gas pipeline applications over the last two years and the chilling effect of the regulatory uncertainty created by the Commission's issuances. Interstate natural gas infrastructure is absolutely critical: as coal, nuclear and hydroelectric generators retire due to subsidies and public policy choices, the need for natural gas to ensure system reliability continues to grow."