Stop us if you’ve heard this one before – the state Independent System Operator is still projecting reliability margins on the state power grid to decline as fossil-based generation retire and new supply resources don’t keep pace with expected demand growth.

The concerns are a little different than the have been in years past. Grid reliability is a concern in winter months across the state if there is extreme weather more so than summer months, which have been a past issue raised by the ISO, particularly in regard to New York City. But there are concerns nonetheless that have become a familiar story to those who follow the New York Independent System Operator’s Power Trends reports each year.

Power Trends 2025 details how reliability margins continue to decline as fossil-based generation retires and new supply resources are not keeping pace with expected demand growth. Further, the report examines the impact on the electric system from an increase in large loads, such as semiconductor manufacturing, generative AI and data center projects.

“The grid is undergoing rapid and instrumental change,” said Rich Dewey, president and CEO of the New York Independent System Operator. “We continue to observe declining reliability margins while forecasting a dramatic increase in load. It’s imperative during this period of transition that we maintain adequate supply to meet growing consumer demand for electricity.”

The ISO’s short-term cure is to repower aging or perhaps shuttered fossil fuel plants. Among the issues the ISO forecasts in coming years is generator deactivations outpacing new supply additions. Electrification programs and new large-load customers associated with economic development initiatives are pushing projected demand higher. Together, these forces are also narrowing reliability margins across New York and increasing the risk of future reliability needs.

ISO officials say fossil-fired generation will be needed for reliable power system operations until the capabilities it offers can be supplied by other resources. Energy efficiency and demand-side management will continue to play a role in reducing energy consumption, lowering costs, and mitigating environmental impacts, according to the ISO. The ISO report calls for a more aggressive repowering of older power plants to lower emissions, meet rising consumer demand, and provide reliability benefits to the grid that are needed to integrate additional clean energy resources. The ISO’s forecast scenarios indicate that by 2030 demand could increase by an additional 1,600 megawatts (MW) to 4,000 megawatts. Load forecasters anticipate as much as 2,500 megawatts of new demand to be on the power grid by 2035, including the potential for more than 1,300 megawatts in the Western New York region. One way to meet that demand is repowering – which could provide a new life for shuttered plants in Western New York, including the former NRG power plant in Dunkirk.

“Repowering can offer a bridge between old and new, the past and the future. It involves replacing

or upgrading existing components with new equipment that can increase power output, improve efficiency and aid the transition to cleaner energy sources.”

The 2025 Power Trends report also warns about the reliance on fossil-fuel generators that are fifty years of age or older, while highlighting the strength of competitive markets to attract the investment necessary to support the continued reliability of the grid.

“We recently streamlined the interconnection process for new generation and launched new market products intended to bring more power onto the grid at the most efficient cost.” said Emilie Nelson, executive vice president and COO of the New York Independent System Operator. “Assessing short-term and long-term reliability risks, we will continue to collaborate with market participants, stakeholders and policymakers to develop sound solutions for the challenges ahead.”

New York is projected to become a winter-peaking electric system by the 2040s, driven primarily by electrification of space heating and transportation. On the coldest days, the availability of natural gas for power generation can be limited, and interruptions to natural gas supply will introduce further challenges for reliable electric grid operations. Current statewide reliability margins in winter are sufficient. However, if gas-fired generators cannot secure fuel during peak winter demand period statewide deficiencies could be seen by the winter of 2029-30 under normal weather conditions. In cases of demand growth or extreme winter weather shortfalls could happen sooner.

With natural gas serving as the primary fuel for more than 60% of the generating capacity in the state, potential fuel constraints can have serious consequences for grid reliability, according to the Power Trends report. Most of the

gas-powered generation located downstate is dual-fuel, which supports grid reliability during extreme weather events like the recent polar vortex. The state’s clean energy goals seek to decarbonize the electric grid by 2040, and natural gas will continue to be necessary to maintain grid reliability during the transition period. Fuel security is also

critical for the ongoing electrification of homes and vehicles.

“Simply put, as New York seeks to retire more fossil fuel units in the coming years it will be essential to deploy new energy resources with the same reliability attributes to maintain grid reliability. Until new, non-emitting alternatives like hydrogen or advanced nuclear generation are developed and commercialized, fossil resources are needed to fill an essential role in preserving reliable grid operations,” the Power Trend 2025 report states.