As temperatures soared near 100 degrees in portions of New York state Tuesday, especially in the Big Apple, concerns were being raised about capacity due to the scorching heat. During the afternoon, the New York Independent System Operation issued an energy warning due to a decline in operating reserves.

“The grid is operating normally at this time but emergency operations may be initiated to maintain system reliability,” the agency noted on Tuesday.

New York’s position in power generation has taken a hit in the last decade. With closings of coal-powered stations that included NRG in Dunkirk and Tonawanda and the Indian Point Energy Center, a nuclear facility, in downstate has led to a greater reliance on importing power — even in days where the sunshine is abundant for solar panels.

“Since the beginning of this week’s extreme heat, we’ve been carefully monitoring our electrical grid to protect New Yorkers,” Gov. Kathy Hochul noted Tuesday night. “Earlier this evening the New York Independent System Operator warned that we are approaching peak capacity in the downstate region and it is critical to conserve electricity between now and 10 p.m. That means setting window air conditioning units to 76 degrees and avoiding unnecessary appliance use. At the same time, it’s critical to stay safe in this dangerous heat: find a cooling center near you, especially if you’re a senior citizen or have health concerns. Working together, we can easily get through this critical period.”

Grid concerns are the spark behind Hochul’s efforts to bring a nuclear power plant to upstate New York as it continues to become obvious that when demand is high, the grid is not capable of meeting the need. State Sen. George Borrello, R-Sunset Bay, Assemblyman Andrew Molitor, R-Westfield, and Chautauqua County Executive PJ Wendel are backing the NRG site in Dunkirk as a potential location.

“As New York State electrifies its economy, deactivates aging fossil fuel power generation and continues to attract large manufacturers that create good-paying jobs, we must embrace an energy policy of abundance that centers on energy independence and supply chain security to ensure New York controls its energy future,” Hochul said this week.

On Wednesday morning, Hochul’s directive became more obvious. At 10 a.m., dual fuels, natural gas and nuclear were 83% of the energy being generated. Hydropower was at 15% while solar was around 3% and wind was at 0.29%.

Even after the concerns of a sweltering Tuesday, NYISO noted potential afternoon strains on the grid on a cooler Wednesday. “Special Case Resources and Emergency Demand Response Program resources are needed,” the notice indicated, between 2 and 9 p.m.

Those zones included Western New York.

These current dilemmas speak to the ISO’s 2025 Power Trends report showing a continued decline in reliability margins as fossil-based generation retires with new supply resources not keeping pace with expected demand growth. The ISO is forecasting an increase in large loads as things like semiconductor manufacturing, generative AI and data center projects come online in addition to the state’s efforts to shift to an all-renewable power grid.

The ISO’s short-term cure is to repower aging or perhaps shuttered fossil fuel plants to keep the power grid reliable. The ISO’s forecast scenarios indicate that by 2030 demand could increase by an additional 1,600 megawatts (MW) to 4,000 megawatts. Load forecasters anticipate as much as 2,500 megawatts of new demand to be on the power grid by 2035, including the potential for more than 1,300 megawatts in the Western New York region.

“Simply put, as New York seeks to retire more fossil fuel units in the coming years it will be essential to deploy new energy resources with the same reliability attributes to maintain grid reliability. Until new, non-emitting alternatives like hydrogen or advanced nuclear generation are developed and commercialized, fossil resources are needed to fill an essential role in preserving reliable grid operations,” the Power Trend 2025 report states.

Managing editor John Whittaker contributed to this report.