Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-NY., speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference, CPAC, at the Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center, Saturday, Feb. 22, 2025, in Oxon Hill, Md. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)

Before sunrise on Friday, Nov. 7, U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik answered the prayers of Republicans across New York state in declaring her run against incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul for next November. That intention to seek the top position in the Empire State marks the first time two powerful women will be in the race for Albany leadership.

There is strong evidence brewing that the showdown has the potential to get nasty — especially from Stefanik’s side. As a disciple of President Donald Trump, her efforts to wallpaper Hochul as the “worst governor in America” is something that is already playing in her favor.

Adding to the early momentum for Stefanik could be this week’s announcement regarding the closing of Bare Hill Correctional Facility in Malone and the partial closing of Collins Correctional Facility — right in the back yard of where Hochul lived most of her life. Support from members of the The New York State Correctional Officers & Police Benevolent Association, which already was dealing with issues involving working conditions, is likely at all-time low for the current governor.

“It is abundantly clear that if you commit to doing this extremely difficult and dangerous job, don’t expect the state of New York to commit to you,” said Chris Summers, NYSCOPBA President. “Since 2009, the state has closed 27 prisons, throwing thousands of correction officers and their families into chaos forcing them to sell homes, pull children out of school, and abandon the communities they swore to serve. Year after year, Albany treats our members like line items on a budget instead of the men and women who risk their lives every day to keep these facilities running.”

Those workers who Summers represents have every right to believe they have been betrayed. At Collins, which was the genesis for the February work stoppages at a number of correctional facilities across New York, the recent decision from the outside has a look of retribution.

Whatever the case, it benefits the Stefanik campaign that uses words as weapons while offering few tangible examples of how to fix the state’s problems. “Hochul has created a crime crisis with failed bail reform and her support of Defund the Police candidates. … I am running for governor to bring a new generation of leadership to Albany to make New York affordable and safe for families all across our great state,” she said earlier this month.

At Stefanik’s web site for governor, there is a lot to like in the platforms that include cutting taxes, bringing fiscal sanity to Albany and lowering the prices for the cost of living. All ideas bring a sweet sound to taxpayers, but none of these objectives spell out specific plans for making these proposals a reality.

Once viewed as a moderate, Hochul has drifted far left. Republicans are unforgiving — and rightfully so — of her endorsement of New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani whose proposed socialist policies are tough to stomach for a working class.

For the moment, Hochul appears to still be in the driver’s seat in the race. The most recent Siena poll of New York state registered voters shows the incumbent with a significant 20-point lead, 52-32%, over Stefanik in a general election matchup, which is a little tighter than Hochul’s 52-27% lead in September.

To the south, another major battle for governor is also brewing. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, who at one time was a strong contender to be tapped as a vice presidential candidate with Kamala Harris, is facing Republican Stacy Garrity.

Unlike New York state, Pennsylvania has a good amount of balance when it comes to elections. Representation includes U.S. senators from both parties in Dave McCormick and John Fetterman. Shapiro leads the state, but Trump won the popular vote there last November.

Garrity, who has a military and private sector background, currently serves as the state treasurer and says she has focused on cutting waste, eliminating taxpayer abuse, and bringing transparency to Pennsylvania’s government.

She appears to be in an uphill battle even though Shapiro fumbled his way through the prolonged state budget battle. An October Quinnipiac University poll showed Shapiro ahead of Garrity by a 55% to 39% margin.

There is still a long way to go until voters in both states make up their minds. But federal happenings could play a large role in these elections over the next 11 months.

That is how elections played out two weeks ago — here and around the nation. It typifies that what happens in Washington can and will have an impact on local and state votes.

John D’Agostino is the editor of The Post-Journal, OBSERVER and Times Observer in Warren, Pa. Send comments to jdagostino@observertoday.com or call 716-487-1111, ext. 253.