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Tough to stay cool on climate change

“The whole climate is changing: the winds, the ocean currents, the storm patterns, snow packs, snowmelt, flooding, droughts. Temperatures is just a bit of it.”

– John Holdren

As our temperatures rise, the tempers have flared. Anyone who has experienced the hostility of a sweltering hot summer day in the city can attest to that.

But researchers are now quantifying the casual relationship between extreme climate and human conflict. Whether their focus is on small-scale interpersonal aggression or large-scale political instability, low-income or high-income societies, the year 10,000 B.C. or the present day, the overall conclusion is the same; episodes of extreme climate make people more violent toward one another.

In a paper published in August 2013 in the journal Science, 60 of the best studies were assembled on this topic from fields as diverse as archaeology, criminology, economics, geography, history, political science and psychology. Typically, these were studies that compared, in a given population, levels of violence during periods of normal climate with levels of violence during periods of extreme periods of extreme climate. The combined results from those studies that concerned modern data in a “meta-analysis” a powerful statistical procedure that allowed us to compare and aggregate findings across the individual studies.

Higher temperatures were associated with more violence.

What explains the strong link between climate and conflict? Different mechanisms are most likely operating in different settings, but the two most important factors appear to be aggression and scarcity. The aggression factor is easy to understand and it probably underlies the finding that hot months have significantly higher crime rates in the United States. Scarcity relates to the increased chances of drought which in turn relates to crops wilting and dying leading to desperation regarding the ability to survive. When people are at the edge of survival, stress levels increase naturally, and can lead to instances of war amongst the populace.

It seems like each summer we notice that our temperatures are increasing at a rate of 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) over the next 50 years. The results imply that if nothing changes the rise in temperatures could increase the rate of group conflicts like civil wars by an amazing 50 percent in many parts of the world – it’s a possibility for a planet already up to our knees in conflict.

I don’t know about you, but I’m not looking forward to a hotter, stickier future.

Policymakers must take their heads out of the proverbial sand and show an understanding that climate can shape social interactions as these are already observable in today’s world and that the climate’s effects on violence are likely to grow in the absence of a concerted action. The leadership must call for new and creative policy reforms designed to take on the challenge of adapting to the sorts of conditions related to climate change that could bring about conflict. Possibly we need to develop more heat-resistant crops and we might have to change how and what we consume.

We must strive to bring the climate deniers to the plate and get them onboard to deal with the inevitable instead of trying to ignore it with the help of the lobbyists standing in our way of a better future for us and not lining the pockets of the wealthy.

I definitely would abhor the idea that we will be leaving our future generations an increasingly hotter and angrier planet.

Pick up you phone and call your representatives in Congress to get them on the same page. Our voices can be stronger together.

Cath Kestler is a resident of Silver Creek.

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