Editor’s note: This is the first of three parts, which will be published through Monday on the November election.

What a wonderful life we have! But today I’m writing about the forthcoming elections, not Bedford Falls. As we frail citizens muddle through an election season with the two most flawed presidential candidates in decades, we have the benefit of political pundits and surrogates who explain or excuse their favorite candidate, and of course the political pollsters, who again and again affirm the reliability and truthfulness of their uncertain profession. With 52 days to go until the national polling on Nov. 8, we the people need to be skeptical of the pundits and pollsters while remaining committed to voting.

So while we all watch, wait and wonder, what kind of government and political leadership are we in store for after Obama hands over the reins on Jan. 20? My crystal ball became incredibly clear just recently, and provided several scenarios worth pondering. In this opinion piece, and two more to follow, I’ve sketched six scenarios that seemed most interesting and likely to me.

Let’s explore what these may or may not mean for this government “Of the People, by the People and for the People.” I hope you will agree that this year there is a lot more to consider than name calling, fanciful explanations, unfavorable ratings and fluctuating polls.

First Option: Donald Trump wins big.

In a shocker, Donald Trump is elected with Republican majorities in both Senate and House. Most likely the signature accomplishment of his administration will be the repeal of Obamacare. But then comes the rub, for just as important as ending the Affordable Care Act is to the Republican faithful, will be the Republican need to fulfill their promises and provide some other form of healthcare for those not covered by Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security or through employer plans. Since the Republicans haven’t really been able to offer an alternative to the Affordable Care Act, and since Mr. Trump won’t find this area an appropriate target for his negotiating skills, this could get interesting fast.

Of course, immigrants will be in the Donald’s crosshairs right from the beginning. While the candidate cannot make up his mind on establishing a “deportation force,” surely some illegal aliens living in the US will have to go. Monitoring and screening those seeking entry into the United States will require strengthening of the Immigration and Naturalization Service, Homeland Security, the FBI and Transportation Safety Administration. At the same time the debate over the wall along the Mexican border should be a major test for the new Trump Administration, with Congress concerned over costs of the wall itself, be it physical, electronic or border patrol personnel. Regardless of the candidate promises, don’t expect Mexico to pay for the wall.

Trump will find more success with the Supreme Court, with the conservative constitutionalist Republican controlled Senate likely to rubber stamp Trump’s nominees. Expect the military to be strengthened, most likely with more troops and expensive weapons systems. Trump should find leading NATO to be a challenge, although it may provide him with the opportunity to improve relationships with Russia and its quasi-dictator. Tax reform should also provide many hours of interesting debate in Congress, with the Trump Administration seeking tax reform (except for real estate developers), while Congress struggles to hold onto the tax breaks already existing for its favored special interests. All of these expected initiatives should fully challenge the intellectualism of Paul Ryan and the fake border South gentility of Mitch McConnell.

Second Option: Trump wins but the Democrats control the Senate.

This scenario could see congressional politics head in one of two directions. Mitch McConnell promised at the beginning of the Obama Administration to defeat the President. Chuck Schumer, who will most likely end up as Senate Majority Leader in a Senate controlled by the Democrats, could simply turn McConnell’s callous negativity towards Mr. Trump. To this writer, it seems more likely that Senator Schumer would work assiduously to block retrograde Supreme Court nominees, with every other Republican proposal subject to close review, but with some negotiating and compromising. Expect Obamacare to be modified but continued. Expect the border wall to never be built. Expect immigrants to be more vigorously vetted and then welcomed. International affairs would provide an outlet for Trump. To soothe his frustration and assure that NATO takes on the characteristics of a lapdog, expect Putin to give Trump a Dacha right next to his (it will be the greatest, for sure).

Stay tuned! More to come on Sunday!

Dave Tiffany retired in December after a career of 46 years in higher education. During that time he taught history and political science at four campuses in three different states. Trained as an historian, his special interests are politics, the presidency, and agricultural history.