Did you ever have a fantasy about something happening that you knew could never happen but that it would be nice if it did. Well, back in February, Minnesota Gov. Mike Walz said something that started me fantasizing. Speaking of the then ongoing strife between ICE officers and residents in Minneapolis he mused that the political tensions might represent a “Fort Sumter” moment leading to an unraveling of the union.

As is usually the case with Walz he got things wrong, but his remark got me thinking along another path on how upstate New York might secede from downstate. Now there are many reasons for thinking that separation would be good for the upstate, such as legislation that wouldn’t harm our dairy industry or treat farm businesses like a business in Brooklyn or Queens. We could finally cast off regulations and the fees that have made New York business unfriendly. We might even lift the ban on fracking championed by environmentalists living in Manhattan.

So, how would upstate go about throwing off its shackles? The Constitution states that a portion of a state can legally “secede” to form a new, separate state within the Union under Article IV, Section 3 of the U.S. Constitution which reads that “New States may be admitted by the Congress into this Union; but no new State shall be formed or erected within the Jurisdiction of any other State; nor any State be formed by the Junction of two or more States, or Parts of States, without the Consent of the Legislatures of the States concerned as well as of the Congress.”

What Article IV Section 3 means is that for upstate New York to secede it would need the approval of both the U.S. Congress and the New York State Legislature which might not be an easy thing to get.

It is Interesting to note that in American history several new states have been created from existing states. In 1792 Kentucky was created from Virginia with that state’s consent because the Appalachian Mountains separated eastern Virginia from the Kentucky territory.

In 1820 Maine separated from Massachusetts as part of the Missouri Compromise orchestrated by Speaker of the House Henry Clay. The agreement sought to maintain a political balance between Northern “free” states and Southern “slave” states.  Missouri was admitted as a “slave” state while Maine was admitted as a “free” state. Because we fought the Civil War 41 years later, this of course was a temporary solution to the problem of slavery.

In 1863 during the Civil War, West Virginia seceded from Virginia with the consent of the “Restored Government of Virginia” a pro-Union state administration established in Wheeling, Virginia (now West Virginia) on June 19, 1861, following Virginia’s secession from the United States. Today West Virginians can be thankful that secession 165 years ago has spared them from the curious machinations of new and very far left Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger.

There have been modern secessionist movements in the U.S. One is a recent political effort aiming to redraw the state border between Oregon and Idaho to incorporate several conservative, rural Oregon counties into the state of Idaho. This March the movement gained significant local support when 13 Oregon counties passed ballot measures supporting the movement. However, it faces substantial legal and legislative hurdles.

The “State of Jefferson” would have included rural northern California and southern Oregon counties. The idea originated in 1941 to protest neglect by the California and Oregon state government. The movement gained national attention before dissolving following the attack on Pearl Harbor. It revived in 2013 with supporters arguing that rural needs differ significantly from urban areas in California and Oregon. Several rural counties have passed resolutions supporting secession and filed federal lawsuits to seek better representation.

In 2025 the Indiana-Illinois Boundary Adjustment Commission was established by Indiana legislation to formally study the possibility of annexing dozens of rural, conservative Illinois counties to Indiana. Unfortunately I don’t think annexation is covered in the Constitution.

In Maryland, there has been interest in several rural western counties to secede and join West Virginia. The movement will probably never succeed yet a 2025 Baltimore Sun poll showed public opinion is deeply divided, with only a slight majority (50.2%) opposing the secession. 

The driving force behind these secessionist movements is usually the rural-urban divide. In upstate New York’s case this divide is fed by the feeling that our needs are ignored by the down state controlled state legislature whose only experience of upstate is often the drive to Albany on the Thruway.

Here are some facts to be considered: The total population of New York as of late 2025 was estimated to be around 20 million of which 13.5 million lived downstate and 6.5 million resided upstate. In other words they outnumber us in population and in political power in Albany.

A large amount of our public education funding comes from state aid and grants. Also Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, and Albany receive aid to support their governments making it likely that they would veto any separation. A Rockefeller Institute study found that while upstate generates less than 28% of the state’s taxes, it receives roughly 42% of state-funded expenditures. We would lose a $14 billion per year subsidy. Going it alone we would face a tax increase of 50% to retain current service levels in maintaining our infrastructure, healthcare, and education.

Based on all available information I have to conclude that my fantasy is a pipe dream with little chance of happening unless New York City and environs slide into the sea. So it’s important that we continue to elect men and women who will ensure we are not forgotten in Albany like Sen. George Borrello and Assemblyman Andrew Molitor.

Thomas Kirkpatrick Sr. is a Silver Creek resident.