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Is our war with Iran necessary? Some see attempts to give diplomacy a chance as a waste of time and want to see it brought to a swift conclusion with the current regime destroyed. Others, because Americans are peace-loving people, want our nation to get out now, and some Democrats, remembering the words of Rahm Emanuel that "You never want a serious crisis to go to waste..." see it as a tool to score political points against the President.
Most Americans know little about the Iranian regime. Regional experts note everyday Americans lack any knowledge of how the regime functions. Many Americans do not fully grasp that Iran operates under a hybrid system that pairs an elected government with a President and Parliament with a more powerful, unelected clerical establishment. While the President frequently appears in Western news, the Supreme Leader holds the final word on all critical state matters, commands the military, the judiciary, and the state media.
Close to half of the American public considers Iran to be a major threat to U.S. national security and view its nuclear program as a direct threat to the United States. About 66% of Americans state it should be a primary goal of U.S. foreign policy to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons. Yet 52% to 65% of Americans depending on the poll want the U.S. to end the war with Iran immediately. Public frustration is driven heavily by concerns over rising gas prices, economic costs, and the belief that the conflict has negatively impacted U.S. interests.
The U.S. and Iran have been at loggerheads for the last 47 years when the Shah was overthrown. Following the 1979 revolution the clerical leadership in Iran came to see the United States as an imperialist power seeking to dominate the Middle East. They view Israel as an illegitimate state and a western colonial outpost that has stolen Muslim lands and displaced the Palestinian people. Further the regime worked to diminish American and Israeli influence in the region by funding and arming militant proxy groups that include Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Houthis in Yemen.
Iran's goal is to ensure the survival of the Islamic clerical regime by establishing itself as the dominant power in the Middle East, expelling the U.S. and western influence from the region, and destroying Israel. Iran further wants to break what it sees as a western dominated world order and to align herself with China and Russia. An important factor is that they see their control of the Strait of Hormuz as vital with the ability to disrupt shipping and oil markets.
Some national security experts believe if Iran acquired a nuclear weapon, it would not launch an unprovoked first strike on Israel because Israel has a nuclear arsenal and second-strike capabilities she does not admit to. A nuclear attack by Iran on Israel would trigger an Israeli attack that would obliterate Iran.
However, many Israeli and western military analysts feel that Iran poses an unacceptable threat because its actions do not fit standard models of deterrence. They base this assessment on the Iranian regime’s extreme rhetoric threatening the elimination of Israel and that religious motivations could override logic. They cite the instability that a nuclear armed Middle East would create.
During the Cold War, "Mad" or Mutually Assured Destruction kept a tense peace between the U.S. and Soviet Union. However, security analysts fear a nuclear standoff between Israel and Iran could be more dangerous because of their close proximity meaning that missiles would reach targets within 15 minutes giving leaders little time to verify information increasing the chances of a launch on a false alarm. In addition, there is no direct communication between the two nations as there was between the U.S. and the Soviet Union.
Regional experts, and intelligence analysts are divided on whether religious beliefs and apocalyptic prophecies would lead Iran to use a nuclear weapon. Some point to Shia Islam messianism that places heavy emphasis on the return of the Mahdi a messianic figure who will return during a time of global chaos and war to establish justice. Critics worry that radical leaders might welcome a catastrophic conflict to speed fulfillment of the prophecy. They also point out that the concept of martyrdom in Islam could lead its leaders to value spiritual rewards or historical religious fulfillment over earthly existence.
Other western intelligence agencies and regional experts feel that leaders of the Iranian regime are rational actors whose primary goal is staying in power. They point to a history of pragmatism in that the regime has consistently chosen regime survival over ideological purity when faced with threats.
Finally, I pose the same question I did at the beginning; "Is this war necessary?" Nuclear weapons are terrible because they can destroy civilizations in minutes.The world would be a better place if no one had them and hopefully someday that will be the case.
Based on my reading and research on this subject I have reached the conclusion that based on previous inflammatory rhetoric regarding the destruction of Israel, the religious fanaticism of its leaders and other factors including Iran's curious decision to fire on neighboring Islamic nations that Iran must not have nuclear weapons and that for our security and that of the region this war is necessary.
Thomas Kirkpatrick Sr. is a Silver Creek resident. Send comments to editorial@observertoday.com