On Saturday evening, I was writing this column as I always do, finishing up a rundown of our nearby Western New York teams and their tournament prospects. Then all heck broke loose at the top of the bracket for the first time in weeks, with three 1-seeds losing, and I had to put it on hold. You’ll get that one next week, so I can try and make some sense of the 1- and 2-seeds.

As you may have heard, 1-seeds (and Big 12 Conference rivals) Baylor and Kansas played on Saturday, with Kansas eking out a 3-point win over the Bears. They were the top two teams in my (and many other) brackets for several weeks. I’m going to flip them – Kansas is now my top overall seed and Baylor is my No. 2. They are clearly better than the rest of the field. But Kansas has established itself as the best team for the moment, ranking first or second in every metric the Committee looks at. 

On Saturday evening, San Diego State finally lost their first game. It was a surprise, in that the loss came at home and it came against middling UNLV, a team whose NET is only 112. As we saw two weeks ago, the Aztecs were the Committee’s (and my) lowest 1-seed, and any loss was going to knock them down to a 2-seed. Ironically, this may actually be better for SDSU, since as the 2-seed in the West they will play their second-weekend games, if they get that far, in Los Angeles instead of New York City.

Then late Saturday night, Gonzaga lost to BYU. While it’s unusual for Gonzaga to lose conference games, this one wasn’t a shocker. BYU projected as a 7-seed and rising (definitely rising now) and had this home game circled since October, so it qualifies as a mild upset. And it’s not a disaster for Gonzaga. A road loss to a solid tournament team should not be too damaging, so I’m not moving them down from their slot as the third 1-seed. I’m also going to solidify BYU as a 6-seed as well. This is the kind of win that should provide a real boost for a team.

That leaves one spot among the 1-seeds to fill. Our top candidates are 2-seeds Dayton, Maryland, and Duke. The Blue Devils lost big earlier this week at North Carolina State, a desperate bubble team, and they also have losses to Stephen F Austin and Clemson, teams with NETs of 86 and 79, meaning they’re worse losses than either of the others have suffered. Meanwhile, Dayton hasn’t lost since before Christmas and Maryland hasn’t lost since early January. When comparing teams, of course we look at the rankings and that is usually very telling. But it’s also helpful to look at their best win and worst loss. Duke has the worst loss. Dayton’s losses were to Kansas and Colorado, the top team in NET and the 18th, so those were “good” losses. Maryland’s four losses are all to teams between 17 and 30 in the NET. So in terms of “worst loss,” Dayton has the edge. Duke has the “best win,” having beaten NET leader Kansas, and both the Blue Devils and Terrapins have beaten NET No. 13 Michigan State. Dayton’s best win is against NET No. 31 St. Mary’s, a good win but not a great one. Duke has the “best win” edge.

I’d have a hard time elevating Duke coming off a 22 point loss to a bubble team, so for me, it’s between Dayton and Maryland. They are in a dead heat in most of the rankings, especially strength of record and BPI. Maryland has played more high-end NET games (they’re playing one as I write against NET No. 22 Ohio State) but Dayton has the better overall strength of schedule. I’m placing Maryland as the final 1-seed, because they’re currently leading the best conference in the country, the Big 10, with Dayton as the 2 in their region. I’ll be interested to see what the other bracketologists say and if Maryland can hold that spot.