We’ve talked already about the top of the bracket and the power teams that are on the outside looking in for once, but we haven’t yet discussed the hardest part of the bracket to project: “the bubble.” This part of the bracket is usually made up of the Nos. 10, 11 and sometimes 12 seeds, and are the final at-large teams. If you’re “on the bubble” you are right near that cut line, and you’re probably a team in the 30s, 40s, or (maybe) 50s in NET ranking — you could make it, but you might not.

None of these teams are going to have resumes that scream “tournament,” and there won’t be very much to differentiate one from the next. They will frequently be at or near .500 in conference play. While it’s not a criteria that the committee puts much stock in, since 1985 an average of only about one team a season makes the tournament as at-large selections with a sub-.500 conference record. To put it bluntly, if you’re not winning the majority of games in your own conference, you’re probably not one of the best 37 at-large teams, as evidenced by the fact that just six of these teams made the Sweet 16. In an ideal world, bubble teams would make up all four opening round games (the “First Four”) and play their way into an 11 or 12 seed. For now, though, two opening round games are played by 16-seeds and two by at-large “bubble” teams.

Let’s start with one of the harder teams to slot: Minnesota. They are 13-10 and just 6-10 in the Big Ten (and are on a three-game losing streak too, with a NET in the 60s), but they have beaten Michigan, Ohio State and Iowa — that’s two No. 1 seeds and a borderline No. 2 seed. Their remaining games are all winnable, so if Minnesota can get to 9-11 or better in the Big Ten (which would also mean at least a respectable 16-11 overall), they’ll get strong consideration.

St. Bonaventure has the opposite problem that Minnesota has. At 11-3 (9-3 in the Atlantic 10), they have a strong win-loss record, but they’re just 1-2 in their toughest games — and they didn’t play (let alone beat) anyone on a par with Minnesota’s three big wins. The Bonnies deserve to get a long look from the Selection Committee, but they will probably need to win out and make the A-10 semifinals to solidify their spot.

Duke scored a big win over Virginia this weekend and blew out Syracuse on Monday, which puts them back on the bubble. The Blue Devils have some bad losses to make up for, but their remaining schedule, especially the finale against a rising North Carolina team, gives them a chance to raise their profile.

Should Drake make the tournament? Make that 22-2 Drake, with a better NET ranking than projected No. 6 seeds Missouri and Virginia Tech? On the surface, it should be an easy decision. Yet on the Bracket Matrix, they are treated like a No. 11 seed with work to do. Why? First, while beating Loyola (who was 13 in the NET) was huge, their next biggest wins were barely in the top 100 in NET. There’s also the matter of a 17-point loss to Valparaiso, who’s barely a top 200 team in NET. I think they’re safe, but not as safe as a two-loss team should be.

Team resumes have mostly been written at this point, but when you’re in a crowd of teams whose resumes look similar, beating someone good (or losing to someone bad) over the next two weeks can make a lasting impression. Fans of Drake and St. Bonaventure can hope that the Big Ten bubble teams like Maryland, Indiana and Minnesota start eliminating each other (or themselves), but they have to start by taking care of their own business.