College hoops is heating up, and we’ve got familiar faces at the top of the bracket. Defending National Champion Baylor and runner-up Gonzaga are both 1-seeds, and they’re joined on the top line by Auburn and Arizona, neither of whom is exactly new to hoops success. Auburn made the final four in 2019, and Arizona was frequently among the top seeds in the ’90s. Villanova, Kansas, Kentucky, and Duke are in their accustomed spots near (but not quite at) the top, joined by four Big 10 powers plus LSU and Houston. 2019 runner-up Texas Tech and 2021 Final Four participant UCLA are also among top four seeds.

Although our local teams can claim bids by winning their conference tournaments, they aren’t looking like tournament at-large teams. Canisius is struggling the most, though they did score a win over UB. The Bulls (who also lost to St. Bonaventure) are right around the .500 mark but Toledo and Ohio are looking very strong in the MAC. Niagara is also hanging around .500 but league heavyweight Iona, coached by former Louisville and Kentucky coach Rick Pitino, is looking like they could run the MAAC table. So no realistic at-large hopes and tough conference tournament sledding await these nearby schools. But what about the Bonnies?

St. Bonaventure had some high hopes this year. They opened the season in the top 25 (the equivalent of a 6-seed), thanks to returning most of their key players from last season’s tournament team. The Bonnies were expected to win the Atlantic 10 Conference on their way to what could be their best seed ever.

Bona was cruising early on, with consecutive strong wins on neutral courts against Boise State, Clemson, and most helpfully, Marquette. That Marquette win in particular has been critical as the Golden Eagles have climbed closer to the top half of the bracket projections, and Boise, like the Bonnies, is a solid bubble team. All are “quad one” wins — the NCAA team sheets used by the selection committee to review teams split games into four quads, with the best teams in the NET rankings being quad one — so that was an excellent start.

But then they lost to Northern Iowa at home, a “quad three” loss. The Panthers aren’t a terrible team, but losing at home to a much weaker team will hurt your NET ranking! Three wins against teams from lesser conferences followed before the other game that the Bonnies probably want back: a ten point loss to a top-20 Connecticut team. There’s no shame in losing to UConn, but that was the toughest team on the schedule and a missed opportunity to add a high-quality win. That was followed by a 37-point loss to Virginia Tech (ouch!), and then COVID cost them a handful of games. They’ve gone 3-1 since their COVID pause. The one loss, to league rival Dayton by 18, again wasn’t a “bad loss” but again represents another missed chance to claim a quad one win. There won’t be many more.

Today the team is 11-4, with some good wins and just one bad loss, and a couple of swings and misses but a very low NET. That’s a bubble profile. Where can they go from here? Running the table is possible but not realistic, and they can’t afford to lose to teams below them in the NET rankings. It’d be helpful to pick off a couple of the teams ahead of them in the NET, like VCU, Davidson, and St. Louis. Fortunately, the toughest of those teams (current conference leader Davidson) has to visit the Reilly Center, but the other two are tough road trips. Bonnies fans should also cheer on their previous opponents, especially Marquette. The better those teams do, the better those wins (and less damaging those losses) will be. Their best bet is to get three wins in the Atlantic 10 Tournament in March, and claim the automatic bid, since the selection committee is usually not kind to mid-majors on the bubble. Fortunately, a 6 vs. 11 or 7 vs. 10 tournament matchup is possible. Unfortunately, they may be in road uniforms for the game.