Decision day
Sabres should take best available at draft, most likely a forward
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The 2022-23 season for the Buffalo Sabres looked like a turning point for a team that has been in a never-ending rebuild for over a decade now.
Buffalo is very strong down the middle with Tage Thompson solidifying himself as one of the best centers in the league and Dylan Cozens looking very much like option 1B as opposed to a second-liner. In the absence of Thompson toward the end of the year, Casey Mittelstadt proved his worth as a strong middle-six center.
On the wings, Baldwinsville native Alex Tuch had a career year with 36 goals and 43 assists for 79 points in 74 games on top of being very effective defensively. Jeff Skinner scored 35 goals and 47 assists for 82 points in 79 games as a strong top-line scorer. Beyond that, rookies Jack Quinn and JJ Peterka look to very promising talents on the verge of holding down top-six scoring duties.
After an abysmal search for the future between the pipes, Devon Levi stepped in and showed he can already perform in big situations for the Sabres. Levi will need another netminder to help carry the workload next year, but for now it's his net going forward.
On the back end, Buffalo's defense is both its greatest strength and weakness with elite No. 1 defender Rasmus Dahlin leading the way offensively and continually improving his defensive game each year. Fellow No. 1 pick Owen Power made the most of his rookie year. His offensive playmaking and transition play could make the Sabres' 1-2 punch the best in the league soon. Mattias Samuelsson is Buffalo's third-best defender and is the defensive rock that allows Dahlin's offense to blossom.
However, after the trio leading Buffalo's defense there is little consistency with several just serviceable pieces like Henri Jokiharju, Ilya Lyubushkin and Riley Stillman. Buffalo already has plenty of offensive defensemen, but now it just needs to round out the staff and likely to step in next year is 2019 first-round pick Ryan Johnson. Prospect Nikita Novikov will be interesting to keep an eye on in Rochester this season.
Immediately improving the roster -- after the arrival of Levi in net -- Buffalo's biggest concern is to address its defense and many would think to do that at the draft tonight. Going into the draft thinking the Sabres need to select a defenseman is very short-sighted as that player will not impact the roster next year or the following year. Even three years from now, their impact would be limited.
What Buffalo needs to do is take the best player available when General Manager Kevyn Adams steps up to the podium with the 13th pick and it will almost certainly not be a defenseman in that case. While it is clear Buffalo's defense is the weakest group of its prospect pool, the Sabres already have elite offensively capable defenders for the future in Dahlin and Power, but the Sabres do not have solidified top-nine scorers throughout the lineup.
The prospect cupboard in Buffalo is loaded with forwards in Matt Savoie, Jiri Kulich, Noah Ostlund, Isak Rosen, Lukas Rousek and Viktor Neuchev. Then on defense it's Ryan Johnson, Nikita Novikov, Vsevolod Komarov and Mats Lindgren.
Clearly Buffalos is thin on defense prospects, but for what Buffalo needs, the top value of the top defenders in this draft is not there. The separation falls off after the top four defenders of Axel Sandin Pellikka, David Reinbacher, Tom Willander and Dmitri Simashev.
The plan is clear to build around Dahlin, Power and Samuelsson for the future and with none of the top defenders capable of being better than Dahlin or Power offensively and maybe being close to Samuelsson defensively the replacement value is not there. The remaining position in the top four for the long-term is likely going to go to a two-way guy and that very well may be taken by Johnson or Novikov before any of those guys sniff a shot at the NHL.
When analyzing those top defenders that spot could be filled best by the 6-foot, 2-inch right-shot Reinbacher who scored three goals and 19 assists for 22 points in 46 games for EHC Kloten in the Swiss League. Reinbacher has the best chance to be a top-pair defender in the NHL with offensive upside, reminding many of a less-talented Moritz Seider, but his value almost guarantees a spot in the top-10 picks ahead of Buffalo.
The 6-foot, 1-inch righ-shot Willander out of Sweden really came on during the year and projects a solid two-way game thanks to his performance at the U-18 World Championships during which he scored three goals and five assists for 8 points in seven games for the silver medalists. Willander is a smooth skater with great transition analytics, but his metrics aren't much better than several of the other defenders that will certainly go after pick 20 in Beau Akey; and almost certain second-rounders in Hunter Brzustewicz, Tanner Molendyk, Matthew Mania, Aram Minnetian, Caden Price and Maxim Strbak.
Sandin Pelikka is a strong-skating, but slightly undersized, right-shot defender with elite puck skills and hockey IQ. However, if Buffalo takes him it is unlikely he will be allowed to achieve his full potential with Dahlin and Power running the offense from the back.
A player who would be a compromise to passing on Sandin Pellikka is the 6-foot, right-shot defender out of the Barrie Colts in Akey. Not getting the big offensive numbers on his junior team slotted behind stud prospect Brandt Clarke, Akey still managed to score 11 goals and 36 assists for 47 points in 66 games, on top of being able to polish his defensive game in that secondary role.
Akey is not even mentioned for consideration in the top 20 and in Bob McKenzie's final rankings compiled in a poll of NHL scouts, he fell out of the first round. Conveniently, Buffalo holds the 39th and 45th picks in this class. Akey is not alone in capable defenders in this class that will likely hear their name called on the second day. That group includes Kitchener Rangers right-shot defender Brzustewicz, Sudbury Wolves righty Matthew Mania, righty Aram Minnetian of the USNTDP and left-shot Caden Price out of the Kelowna Rockets.
All of those projected second-rounders have great transition ability and are strong skaters who are very capable defensively. Above those guys, very likely going in the first round is Simashev, the big left-shot Russian who played several games in the KHL. If there was an ounce of offensive talent in his body he would be a lock for the top defensive spot in the class as he is a smooth skater with a massive 6-foot, 4-inch frame.
However, someone that can't even produce offensively in the Russian junior league has no business being a top-15 pick, there is a long history of taking big disappointing defenders early and his lack of offense will never justify a top-15 selection.
Instead Buffalo should take the best player available at No. 13 and it's almost certainly going to be a forward. It's no secret that this is a loaded draft class and the forwards available when the Sabres pick have higher potential than the current top forward prospects.
The best option, if he somehow falls to No. 13, would be Zach Benson out of the Winnipeg Ice, a teammate of Savoie's. He scored 36 goals and 62 assists for 98 points in 60 games. His skating skills are slightly above average, but they appear elite with the motor he possesses. He is relentless on the forecheck and constantly operating at a high speed with his decision making. Benson's shot is nothing special, but he's one of the best playmakers in the class and always seems to make the right decision with the puck. Away from the puck, Benson is just as good making him one of the best defensive forwards in the class.
If Oliver Moore is available he would be another great choice, having the best skating talent in a prospect since Connor McDavid. Another center, Moore has the brains and motor to be deployed at any spot in the lineup where with his speed he will undoubtedly make an impact.
On the wing are elite talents in Andrew Cristall, Gabe Perreault and Quentin Musty. Cristall has some of the best hands and vision in the entire draft, but his downfall is his dreadful skating. Perreault is another offensive genius out of the USNTDP and just broke Auston Matthews' single-season scoring record with 53 goals and 79 assists for 132 points in 63 games. Once again, his skating is what is dropping him down boards.
Musty, the Hamburg native, possesses all of the tools Cristall and Perreault lack with his skating on a power forward's frame. Musty is an elite transition player, showed solid defensive metrics, showed he could be a complete playmaker in Sudbury on the side of David Goyette and boasts a strong shot making the former Junior Sabres player an exciting option.
When watching tonight, do not be surprised if Buffalo selects a player who shined at the U-18 World Championships, which Adams has a history of doing since taking over as general manager. Former standouts at the tournament include Isak Rosen, Prokhor Poltapov, Nikita Novikov, Noah Ostlund and Jiri Kulich. The players available with great performances this year are the United States' Perreault, Moore; Sweden's forward Otto Stenberg, Sandin Pellikka, Willander; Czechia's Eduard Sale; Canada's Matt Wood, Calum Ritchie and Colby Barlow.