Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., smiles as President-elect Donald Trump acknowledges her as House Speaker Mike Johnson of La., applauds, at a meeting with House Republicans in Washington, Wednesday, Nov. 13, 2024. (Allison Robbert/Pool via AP)

Western New York Republicans know the clock is ticking when it comes to the 2026 election for New York governor. During a political fundraising event June 30 in West Seneca, party leaders and supporters came to hear from their potential great hope to be the next leader of the Empire State: Elise Stefanik.

As current representative for the 21st Congressional District, Stefanik has constituents near the capital district of eastern New York and all of the Adirondack region. According to her website, her territory is “one of the largest geographically in the Eastern United States.”

Her clout nationally is even greater.

Over the last six years, Stefanik has become a rising star within the Republican party. Her prominence grew after defending President Donald Trump in his first term during an impeachment hearing in 2019.

Her vote to not certify the 2020 election results that favored President Joe Biden also won favor with powerful party leaders. By 2021, when then U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming was stripped of her leadership post due to criticisms of Trump, Stefanik had become one of the most powerful women in Congress.

Previously tapped by Trump in January to become U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, her nomination was withdrawn due to worries about a slim Republican House of Representatives majority being at risk. “I have been proud to be a team player,” Stefanik said on Fox News’ “Hannity” of the withdrawal of her nomination in late March. “The president knows that. And he and I have had multiple conversations today, and we are committed to delivering results on behalf of the American people.”

At the moment, the GOP is in full control over what happens in Washington. But it is almost irrelevant when it comes to the action taking place in Albany.

That is exactly why Stefanik received a hero’s welcome last month during her highly publicized appearance in suburban Buffalo. Current Gov. Kathy Hochul has gone from being a middle of the road voice of reason while serving as second in command under Andrew Cuomo to having more left-leaning curves than a racecar driver.

Those stances are frustrating to upstate residents, especially those in rural counties who have watched population decline for more than four decades. Results from the 2022 gubernatorial election prove Hochul, who narrowly defeated challenger and current U.S. Environmental Protection Agency administrator Lee Zeldin, could be vulnerable.

Stefanik already has plenty more name recognition than Zeldin did three years ago. She also indicated last week she has an interest in guiding Albany. “It’s not a question of if — it’s a question of when I announce, at the time and place of my choosing,” she said at the gathering, according to WKBW-TV. “So I want to ask you all today to join us in this effort to save New York State once and for all — and fire Kathy Hochul in 2026, starting right here in Erie County.”

Though many here in Chautauqua County may share that sentiment, it still seems easier said than done. One day after Stefanik’s stop, a Siena College Poll of New York found Hochul comfortably in front when it comes to likely competitors.

Of the possible contests, Stefanik fared the worst, trailing 47% to 24%. Hochul also led U.S. Rep. Mike Lawler, from downstate, by a 44% to 24% margin and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman by a 44% to 19% margin.

Those numbers, at the moment, are far from convincing. “While the early leads seem large, Hochul is not hitting the ‘magic’ 51% mark against any of these opponents, and in each matchup, between a quarter and a third of voters (weren’t) able to choose between the two candidates,” Siena College Research Institute Director Don Levy said.

During their most recent confrontation last month, Stefanik steamrolled Hochul during a Congressional Oversight Committee hearing on New York’s sanctuary state policies that shield violent illegal aliens from deportation. To be fair, Stefanik handled the questions and dominated the discussion, often not allowing Hochul to respond or cutting her off.

Stefanik clearly had the upper hand, but that event in Washington was on her turf where she had full control. For Hochul, her strength remains in the metropolitan voters downstate. Those in the Big Apple carried her to the victory over Zeldin in 2022.

That is the big question facing Stefanik. If she does run, can she relate at all to that blue demographic?

Vice President Kamala Harris scored 68% of the vote in New York City during the 2024 presidential election. Trump’s 30% there was seen as a minor victory and a possible indication the tide may be turning.

That is what Republicans are banking on. Having a big name like Stefanik challenging Hochul for governor adds a bit of spice to what could be an interesting 16 months in Empire State politics.

John D’Agostino is the editor of The Post-Journal, OBSERVER and Times Observer in Warren, Pa. Send comments to jdagostino@observertoday.com or call 716-487-1111, ext. 253.