FILE - Children walk through a sports field in Independence Park under the skyline of Charlotte, N.C., on March 20, 2025. (AP Photo/Mary Conlon, File)

Latest U.S. Census projections should not have New Yorkers in the doldrums, but they are far from a beacon of hope. According to the estimates released in late January, the Empire State saw a smidgeon of growth in 2025 when compared to the previous year with a gain of more than 1,000 residents.

Since 2020, however, the figures are nowhere near flattering as the state has seen an exodus of about 120,000 people. Even with the losses, New York remains the fourth largest state behind California, Texas and Florida.

In the fifth slot is neighboring

Pennsylvania, which is on a better track. In one year, the Commonwealth gained more than 14,000 residents and has increased population by 56,000 residents to 13,059,432 over the last six years.

Census officials said 2024 was the nation’s slowest population growth since the early period of the COVID-19 pandemic, when the population grew by a historically low 0.2% in 2021. It also comes after a sizable uptick of growth in 2024, when the country added 3.2 million people and grew by 1%, the fastest annual population growth rate since 2006.

“The slowdown in U.S. population growth is largely due to a historic decline in net international migration, which dropped from 2.7 million to 1.3 million in the period from July 2024 through June 2025,” said Christine Hartley, assistant division chief for Estimates and Projections at the Census Bureau.

“With births and deaths remaining relatively stable compared to the prior year, the sharp decline in net international migration is the main reason for the slower growth rate we see today.”

Those results, it should be noted, are part of the President Donald Trump factor. Getting tough at the borders and with non-U.S. citizens has definitely been a deterrent.

Other notable trends from the report reveals:

— The Midwest was the only region where all states increased in population with both Ohio and Michigan showing impressive gains.

— South Carolina’s population grew by 1.5%, which was the highest of any state. Idaho at 1.4% and North Carolina at 1.3% followed by Texas at 1.2%.

— All but five U.S. states grew between July 2024 and July 2025. States that experienced population decline were California, Hawaii, New Mexico, Vermont and West Virginia.

Can Western New York and Northwest Pennsylvania see a turnaround in their tumbling crowds? That answer will be revealed later this year, though it’s not expected despite a rebound that is being seen in rural areas across America.

In a recent U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service report, the agency found the population in nonmetropolitan areas has been rising each year since 2020. However, the best chance for growth can be found “in counties adjacent to metro areas and counties with recreation economies, with most other nonmetro counties seeing decline,” the report said.

Despite the proximity to Buffalo and Erie, Pa., our home counties have not benefited from this factor. Over a four-year period beginning in 2020, Warren County, Pa., has lost 3.2% of its population going from 38,587 to 37,373.

Its recent campaign to bring more residents, led by Warren Worx, added a “Place to Become” brand for the county. “This is a bold and innovative path we’re on,” said Warren Mayor David Wortman during the unveiling. “Tonight we are taking a huge step in our city, our county and our region. Our time is now to invest in, and strengthen our future.”

Its efforts, which will take time, have been met with a mixed reaction.

Chautauqua County’s decline appears to be slowing. During the same time period it lost 2.8% of its residents — going from 127,657 to 124,105. Its campaign to attract newcomers is in two parts: Choose CHQ to bring in residents and Live CHQ that highlights the region’s affordability and natural assets.

Though both slogans offer a positive vibe, words alone are not going to fix the decades of declines that ail these regions. Warren County, which closed two high schools in Sheffield and Youngsville, made a painful choice that came down to tax dollars. The district understood it was too small in enrollment to be that big. Less than a year into the transition, there is still bitterness, but hopes for greater educational sustainability.

It is no different in the private sector. Businesses are forced to right size when they lose contracts and customers. On a local level, fewer residents living here equals fewer customers for both governments and schools — that means less revenue in taxes.

It is one more reason why entities need to stop focusing on income. Expenses are always the most important piece in the bottom line.

John D’Agostino is editor of The Post-Journal, OBSERVER and Times Observer in Warren, Pa. Send comments to jdagostino@observertoday.com or call 716-487-1111, ext. 253.