When a threat appears, we must consider the long-term consequences of our response – or lack of response. But we often kick the can down the road for our children to deal with and fall prey to excuses that make us feel good today while conveniently ignoring the consequences for tomorrow.

Politicians understand that most people react emotionally to threats and take comfort in emotionally satisfying tribal-based memes that bypass any critical thought. Contrived memes are useful tools for manipulating an unthinking public, and could be used by either side.

The first question to ask when evaluating a threat is whether the claim is genuine or contrived. If you find a lump where a lump does not belong, do you ignore it because you feel fine today? Or do you endure the pain of a biopsy to obtain objective evidence? Go ahead, roll the dice.

The second question is what to do if a threat is plausible and would have long-term consequences if not confronted. If the biopsy points to a malignant tumor, do you ignore it because chemotherapy or surgery might be inconvenient? Go ahead, roll the dice.

Those who must make huge decisions rarely have the luxury of a biopsy. In business, politics, and war, information is tightly controlled. Your opponent puts significant effort into counterintelligence to protect secrets and creates mis/disinformation to mislead. So does your own side.

The long-term consequences (good or bad) of our decisions will also depend on evolving circumstances that cannot be predicted. What seems likely today might be a false alarm (or not), and we never know what might emerge around the next corner. You may have a plan, but so does your opponent. Clausewitz termed this “the fog of war.” It’s always there, and we must make decisions despite the fog.

Woodrow Wilson — our first Progressive President — claimed to be “for peace” and kept us out of the Great War until 1917 when political reality forced him to enter on the side of England and France. Wilson’s plan to stay neutral did not create peace — it only prolonged the suffering.

What was the cost of Wilson’s doing nothing for so long? Provide your own answer.

In 1938 Britain’s Lord Chamberlain proclaimed, “peace in our time” after meeting with Hitler. Then the Leftist intelligentsia of Britain moved to disband the “unnecessary” British Army. Shortly thereafter Germany invaded Poland and started World War II. A weakened British Army soon suffered the humiliation of Dunkerque as Hitler subjugated nearly all of Europe. London was bombed. The holocaust was on.

What was the cost of Chamberlain’s naïve belief in “peace in our time” in 1938? History provides the answer.

Did Joe Biden know Russia would invade Ukraine? It’s hard to believe our military intelligence would have missed it. Either way, Biden refused to confront Putin and offered only meaningless sanctions while jacking up the price of oil – which funded Putin’s war. Over 2 million have died in that endless quagmire.

What if Biden had stood up to Putin? Provide your own answer.

Wilson, Chamberlain, and Biden all ignored the obvious truth: The world is ruled by the aggressive use of force, and nothing invites aggression more than weakness. Bin Laden openly referred to the US as a paper tiger under Clinton, whose pathetic response invited 9/11. The rest is history.

Which leads us to Iran, a country ruled by a 10% minority of heavily armed radical apocalyptic 12th-Imam Shiite Muslims who have been at war with their Sunni Muslim neighbors (and everyone else) for 1300 years. Iran declared war on the US when the Islamic Republic was declared by the Ayatollahs in 1979, but American administrations conveniently ignored the threat until now.

The apocalyptic Mullahs in Iran were within months having up to 11 nuclear warheads (UN). Their missiles could already hit most of Europe, and they were rapidly developing the long-range missiles that could hit the US. They produced Shahed drones (sold to Russia for use in Ukraine) by the thousands.

Even without long-range missiles, they could easily drive a boat carrying a nuclear device into any American harbor and create their apocalypse.

Without further enrichment of their 60% pure uranium, they can still put a low-tech dirty bomb into a boat, drive it into NY harbor, and render the entire region unlivable for thousands of years.

So, is adding $1 to the price of a gallon of gasoline a bad deal if the likely alternative is nuclear blackmail? The US and Europe have already wasted over $10 trillion on wind and solar, with no effect on climate. If “affordability” is an issue — start by eliminating that nonsense.

If Trump had done nothing, would Obama and Biden be blamed for allowing it to happen through their gifts to the Ayatollahs?

Consider the future cost of doing nothing about Iran today.

Go ahead: Roll the dice.

Michael Dee is a Silver Creek resident and Scott Axelson resides in Jamestown.