For over a century, Puerto Rico’s political status has remained unresolved, often framed in Washington as a choice among statehood, the territorial status quo, or sovereignty. However, recent reports, academic studies and political shifts suggest a clear conclusion: the pro-statehood camp, led by the Partido Nuevo Progresista (PNP), is not only losing democratic support but also operating within a system plagued by corruption, irregularities and structural issues.

In this environment, national sovereignty, whether through independence or free association, appears to be the only realistic and credible option for Puerto Rico and the United States.

A healthy democracy relies on trust in elections. However, in Puerto Rico, that trust has been seriously compromised. An investigation by ProPublica revealed that federal prosecutors uncovered a scheme within Puerto Rico’s prison system in which members of a criminal gang allegedly provided drugs to inmates in exchange for their votes in local elections. The probe indicated that the operation involved drug trafficking inside prisons and used coercive methods, including threats of violence or withholding drugs, to force inmate cooperation, many of whom faced addiction issues.

The investigation indicated potential involvement by certain correctional staff who may have allowed the scheme to persist. Authorities found that many inmates were addicted and vulnerable, with gang leaders enforcing obedience through threats of violence or by withholding drugs. This elevates the scheme from mere vote-buying to coercion, raising significant concerns about human rights and election integrity.

Reports suggested that the votes obtained through this scheme were allegedly targeted at a specific gubernatorial candidate, Jenniffer González-Colón of the pro-statehood party, shifting the concern from typical fraud to possible politically driven manipulation. Investigators are still exploring whether any political campaign was directly involved, but the case was halted before that could be clarified. Consequently, the critical question of a potential campaign link remains unresolved. In any jurisdiction under U.S. sovereignty, that should be unacceptable.

The PNP frequently asserts that Puerto Ricans overwhelmingly support statehood, referencing plebiscite outcomes. Yet, a comprehensive academic study from the University of Malta examining Puerto Rico’s seven status plebiscites indicates a more nuanced picture. Turnout has fluctuated considerably, often affected by organized opposition boycotts over biased ballot designs or the absence of binding federal commitments. In many instances, large numbers of voters abstained, meaning the majority results often reflected only a portion of the electorate, not the entire Puerto Rican population.

This distinction is vital for U.S. policymakers because a non-binding plebiscite with limited participation cannot serve as the basis for a lasting constitutional change, such as statehood.

Beyond elections, the pro-statehood political establishment’s governance has been marred by corruption scandals, financial mismanagement and institutional decline. Many sources highlight widespread public discontent with Puerto Rico’s political leadership, particularly the perception that entrenched parties have prioritized maintaining power over serving the public.

The PNP, the leading pro-statehood force, has played a key role in this system. Critics contend that its influence over public institutions, including electoral agencies, has enabled the party to steer results and narratives to maintain its political edge, even as its public support declines.

As Puerto Rico’s political landscape evolves, the risks associated with this system are becoming increasingly evident. The likelihood of electoral irregularities tends to rise during periods of political change, especially now, as Puerto Rico undergoes such a transition.

This issue goes beyond isolated misconduct and reveals a deeper structural problem: a colonial political system that lacks full democratic accountability. In this setup, the final authority rests with the U.S. Congress rather than with Puerto Rican voters. Consequently, local politicians are often constrained, which can encourage practices such as manipulation, patronage, and the prioritization of short-term power retention.

During a Senate hearing, Mike Lee, R-Utah, questioned Puerto Rico Gov. Jenniffer González-Colón about the escalating corruption scandal involving her administration and her chief of staff, Francisco Domenech, which has led to the resignation of former Department of Economic Development and Commerce Secretary Sebastián Negrón and 10 other officials.

Negrón explained that he resigned due to what he saw as inappropriate interference by the governor’s administration in the department’s work, including the reversal of disciplinary measures he had implemented after probing alleged procurement irregularities.

During Lee’s questioning, González-Colón refuted all accusations against her administration and her chief of staff. Nonetheless, many Puerto Ricans remain skeptical of her assertions. Prominent leaders in Puerto Rico, such as Juan Dalmau Ramirez (of the main opposition Puerto Rican Independence Party-PIP), even stated that her statements to Congress were false. Critics contend that her testimony conflicted with publicly available facts and statements from former members of her administration, prompting some in the island-nation to believe she misled Congress to evade responsibility for the scandal.

Against this backdrop, a notable shift is underway, with more Puerto Ricans — on the island and in the diaspora — viewing sovereignty as a serious and feasible option. Recent reports from The Guardian highlight growing support for independence, especially among younger people. This trend isn’t just ideological; it’s driven by real experiences, including economic stagnation, political corruption and territorial limitations. Likewise, studies and polls show that support for sovereignty options, such as free association, is growing as voters seek options that provide both dignity and effective governance.

From a policy standpoint, sovereignty is not a radical shift but a logical resolution to an unsustainable situation. For Puerto Rico, it would grant full democratic authority over its political and economic future, enabling it to negotiate international treaties, craft development policies, and establish institutions accountable to local citizens rather than to an external body.

For the United States, sovereignty would confer strategic and financial advantages. It would end a prolonged colonial dynamic that undermines America’s global reputation, especially in its promotion of democracy worldwide. Moreover, it could foster a new partnership with Puerto Rico, possibly through free association, anchored in mutual consent rather than territorial obedience.

In contrast, statehood faces major structural and political hurdles. It requires overwhelming, clear support from Puerto Ricans and approval from Congress — conditions that are not currently met. More crucially, pursuing statehood based on disputed elections or a lack of full democratic consensus could entrench a highly divisive outcome.

Puerto Rico is changing as its political consciousness grows. The sovereignty movement signals a stronger call for accountability, dignity and self-determination. The focus has shifted from whether the current system can continue — it’s clear it cannot — to what the future holds. Increasingly, statehood seems less like a viable solution and more like a political strategy upheld by a flawed and corrupt colonial system trying to stay afloat amid a litany of crises. By contrast, sovereignty offers a viable path forward, grounded in democratic legitimacy and mutual respect.

For the United States, accepting that reality would not be a setback but an opportunity to address a colonial legacy, reinforce democratic values and establish a partnership with Puerto Rico grounded in mutual respect rather than dominance. Ultimately, Puerto Rico’s future should be determined by the genuine and straightforward will of its people, not by manipulated results or disputed narratives. That will is increasingly leaning toward sovereignty.

Javier A. Hernández is a Puerto Rican writer and pro-sovereignty activist and adviser. He wrote this for InsideSources.com.